The short answer is that Ontario does not have one date, it has about six weeks of them, and they move from north to south. Here is where this year's forecast puts each one.
Mon, October 19, 2026
Across these 10 places the forecast currently runs from September 24 to October 16. Each window carries a confidence band, because a forecast is not a date.
| Location | Right now | Predicted peak |
|---|---|---|
| Lake Superior | Past peak Source: Ontario Parks Fall Colour Report, Oct 17 · 100% colour change at Lake Superior - South | Oct 1–Oct 9 ± 6.3 days |
| Temagami | Approaching peak Source: Ontario Parks Fall Colour Report, Oct 8 · 80% colour change at Finlayson Point | Sep 21–Sep 29 ± 5.4 days |
| Algonquin, Highway 60 corridor | Past peak Source: Ontario Parks Fall Colour Report, Oct 16 · 100% colour change at Algonquin | Oct 3–Oct 11 ± 2.4 days |
| Killarney | Peak Source: Ontario Parks Fall Colour Report, Oct 15 · 90% colour change at Killarney | Oct 7–Oct 15 ± 5 days |
| Haliburton Highlands | Approaching peak Source: Ontario Parks Fall Colour Report, Oct 9 · 80% colour change at Lake St. Peter | Oct 5–Oct 13 ± 2.5 days |
| Muskoka, Huntsville and Lake of Bays | Approaching peak Source: Ontario Parks Fall Colour Report, Oct 9 · 70% colour change at Oastler Lake | Sep 24–Oct 2 ± 5.4 days |
| Kawarthas | Approaching peak Source: Ontario Parks Fall Colour Report, Oct 7 · 70% colour change at Petroglyphs | Oct 10–Oct 18 ± 1.8 days |
| Scenic Caves and the Blue Mountains | Patchy Source: Ontario Parks Fall Colour Report, Oct 9 · 50% colour change at Wasaga Beach | Oct 8–Oct 16 ± 3.3 days |
| Rattlesnake Point, Milton | Approaching peak Source: Ontario Parks Fall Colour Report, Oct 14 · 60% colour change at Bronte Creek | Oct 11–Oct 19 ± 2.6 days |
| Rouge and the Don Valley, Toronto | Patchy Source: Ontario Parks Fall Colour Report, Oct 14 · 40% colour change at Darlington | Oct 13–Oct 21 ± 2.7 days |
Updated every time the model runs. How this is made sets out what it uses and what it gets wrong, and how accurate were we scores every frozen prediction against what actually happened.
Colour arrives in northern Ontario first and works south over about six weeks. Lake Superior and Temagami turn from the middle of September. Algonquin and the Haliburton Highlands follow at the end of September and into the first week of October. Muskoka and the Kawarthas run through the first half of October. The Niagara Escarpment and Toronto's own ravines are last, often not peaking until the third or fourth week of October.
That ordering barely moves from year to year. What moves is the whole ladder, forward or back by up to a fortnight, and that is what a forecast is actually for. A cold, clear, dry September pulls the entire province earlier. A warm wet one pushes it later and takes some of the red out of it.
Shortening days start the process and are fixed, which is why the ordering is so stable: latitude and elevation decide who goes first. Cold nights above freezing are what sharpen it, because they trap sugars in the leaf and produce the reds in maples. A hard frost does the opposite and ends a display early.
Summer drought stress can pull colour forward by a week and mute it at the same time, so an early season is not always a good one. Our model reads all four of those and publishes what each one is contributing, per location, on the region pages.
Roughly ten days to a fortnight in any one place, and less than that if a windy, rainy stretch arrives at the wrong moment. Peak is not a single Saturday, but it is not a month either.
Because the province turns in sequence, the practical answer for most people is not to chase one location's peak. Almost any weekend from the third week of September to the third week of October has somewhere in Ontario at peak. The question is which place, and that is the one this site exists to answer.
Picking the weekend is the hard part, and it is the part this site can do. Getting there is the other half.
This site is run by Wilderness Union, a Toronto outdoor community for ages 18 to 45. Transport from the city, gear and guides are included.
There is no single date. Northern Ontario peaks from the middle of September, the Algonquin and Haliburton highlands around the end of September and the first week of October, cottage country through the first half of October, and southern Ontario including Toronto from the middle to the end of October.
The table on this page carries this year's predicted peak week for each place we track, with a confidence band, because a forecast is not a date.
That is what the forecast on this page is for, and it changes as the season's weather comes in. Each location's page shows what is pushing its date around: cold nights, September warmth, summer drought and frost, with the contribution of each one written out.
Inside two weeks the forecast is reasonable. Beyond that the confidence band widens quickly, and we show the band rather than hiding it. After the season we score every frozen prediction against what actually happened and publish the result.
Not on its own. Drought stress tends to pull colour earlier and mute it, and a warm September delays it. The combination that produces the best displays is a wet summer followed by a September with warm days, cold nights above freezing, and not much cloud.
Hiking and paddling weekends run by Wilderness Union, a Toronto outdoor community for ages 18 to 45. Transport, gear and guides included.
See the adventuresOr see every fall trip in date order, with the colour forecast for each destination.
See the fall trips