How accurate were we?
The season is still running, so this is a partial scorecard. It is here now rather than published at the end because hiding it until the numbers look good would defeat the point.
23/46
Inside the window
36/46
Inside window plus band
0
Median miss, days
By how far ahead the call was made
This is the table that matters. Calling a peak three days out is easy. Calling it in late August is the thing worth judging us on. When we missed, the mean miss across every call was 2.1 days.
| Lead time | Calls | Inside the window | Mean miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 7 days ahead | 9 | 8 (89%) | 0.3 days |
| 8 to 14 days ahead | 9 | 6 (67%) | 0.6 days |
| 15 to 28 days ahead | 18 | 9 (50%) | 1.8 days |
| More than 28 days ahead | 10 | 0 (0%) | 5.4 days |
By location
Algonquin, Highway 60 corridor
Real peak Oct 3 · reported at peak Sep 29 to Oct 7
| Frozen on | We said | Lead time | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7 | Sep 25 – Oct 3 ± 5.4 | 26 days out | Inside the window |
| Sep 14 | Sep 26 – Oct 4 ± 4.5 | 19 days out | Inside the window |
| Sep 21 | Oct 1 – Oct 9 ± 1.8 | 12 days out | Inside the window |
| Sep 28 | Sep 30 – Oct 8 ± 1.5 | 5 days out | Inside the window |
Arrowhead
Real peak Oct 1 · reported at peak Oct 1 to Oct 8
| Frozen on | We said | Lead time | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7 | Sep 29 – Oct 7 ± 6.4 | 24 days out | Inside the window |
| Sep 14 | Sep 30 – Oct 8 ± 5.4 | 17 days out | Inside the window |
| Sep 21 | Oct 2 – Oct 10 ± 3.9 | 10 days out | Missed by 1 day, inside the band |
| Sep 28 | Sep 30 – Oct 8 ± 2.6 | 3 days out | Inside the window |
Oxtongue River and Ragged Falls
Real peak Oct 1 · reported at peak Sep 29 to Oct 8
| Frozen on | We said | Lead time | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7 | Sep 24 – Oct 2 ± 5.2 | 24 days out | Inside the window |
| Sep 14 | Sep 27 – Oct 5 ± 4.6 | 17 days out | Inside the window |
| Sep 21 | Oct 3 – Oct 11 ± 3.7 | 10 days out | Missed by 2 days, inside the band |
| Sep 28 | Oct 4 – Oct 12 ± 2.7 | 3 days out | Missed by 3 days |
Killarney
Real peak Oct 15 · reported at peak Oct 15 to Oct 15
| Frozen on | We said | Lead time | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7 | Sep 28 – Oct 6 ± 6.2 | 38 days out | Missed by 9 days |
| Sep 14 | Sep 28 – Oct 6 ± 4.8 | 31 days out | Missed by 9 days |
| Sep 21 | Oct 3 – Oct 11 ± 4.1 | 24 days out | Missed by 4 days, inside the band |
| Sep 28 | Oct 6 – Oct 14 ± 3.1 | 17 days out | Missed by 1 day, inside the band |
| Oct 5 | Oct 10 – Oct 18 ± 2.2 | 10 days out | Inside the window |
| Oct 12 | Oct 9 – Oct 17 ± 4.2 | 3 days out | Inside the window |
Awenda
Real peak Oct 14 · reported at peak Oct 14 to Oct 14
| Frozen on | We said | Lead time | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7 | Oct 4 – Oct 12 ± 7.5 | 37 days out | Missed by 2 days, inside the band |
| Sep 14 | Oct 5 – Oct 13 ± 6.6 | 30 days out | Missed by 1 day, inside the band |
| Sep 21 | Oct 5 – Oct 13 ± 5.1 | 23 days out | Missed by 1 day, inside the band |
| Sep 28 | Oct 9 – Oct 17 ± 3.9 | 16 days out | Inside the window |
| Oct 5 | Oct 9 – Oct 17 ± 2.4 | 9 days out | Inside the window |
| Oct 12 | Oct 11 – Oct 19 ± 1.5 | 2 days out | Inside the window |
Mono Cliffs and Hockley Valley
Real peak Oct 16 · reported at peak Oct 16 to Oct 16
| Frozen on | We said | Lead time | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7 | Oct 4 – Oct 12 ± 7.1 | 39 days out | Missed by 4 days, inside the band |
| Sep 14 | Sep 30 – Oct 8 ± 4.6 | 32 days out | Missed by 8 days |
| Sep 21 | Oct 2 – Oct 10 ± 3.5 | 25 days out | Missed by 6 days |
| Sep 28 | Oct 5 – Oct 13 ± 2.9 | 18 days out | Missed by 3 days |
| Oct 5 | Oct 6 – Oct 14 ± 2 | 11 days out | Missed by 2 days, inside the band |
| Oct 12 | Oct 9 – Oct 17 ± 1.5 | 4 days out | Inside the window |
Forks of the Credit
Real peak Oct 16 · reported at peak Oct 16 to Oct 16
| Frozen on | We said | Lead time | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7 | Oct 7 – Oct 15 ± 7.6 | 39 days out | Missed by 1 day, inside the band |
| Sep 14 | Oct 1 – Oct 9 ± 4.8 | 32 days out | Missed by 7 days |
| Sep 21 | Oct 5 – Oct 13 ± 4 | 25 days out | Missed by 3 days, inside the band |
| Sep 28 | Oct 8 – Oct 16 ± 3.4 | 18 days out | Inside the window |
| Oct 5 | Oct 8 – Oct 16 ± 2.3 | 11 days out | Inside the window |
| Oct 12 | Oct 8 – Oct 16 ± 1.5 | 4 days out | Inside the window |
Lake Superior
Real peak Oct 8 · reported at peak Oct 8 to Oct 8
| Frozen on | We said | Lead time | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7 | Sep 26 – Oct 4 ± 6.3 | 31 days out | Missed by 4 days, inside the band |
| Sep 14 | Sep 28 – Oct 6 ± 4.8 | 24 days out | Missed by 2 days, inside the band |
| Sep 21 | Oct 2 – Oct 10 ± 3.1 | 17 days out | Inside the window |
| Sep 28 | Oct 3 – Oct 11 ± 1.5 | 10 days out | Inside the window |
| Oct 5 | Oct 4 – Oct 12 ± 2.9 | 3 days out | Inside the window |
Sleeping Giant, Thunder Bay
Real peak Oct 10 · reported at peak Oct 10 to Oct 12
| Frozen on | We said | Lead time | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7 | Sep 23 – Oct 1 ± 5.9 | 33 days out | Missed by 9 days |
| Sep 14 | Sep 24 – Oct 2 ± 4.6 | 26 days out | Missed by 8 days |
| Sep 21 | Sep 27 – Oct 5 ± 3.6 | 19 days out | Missed by 5 days |
| Sep 28 | Oct 5 – Oct 13 ± 2.9 | 12 days out | Inside the window |
| Oct 5 | Oct 5 – Oct 13 ± 5.5 | 5 days out | Inside the window |
Scoring rule · the real peak is the middle of the run of days Ontario Parks reported a location at peak, not the first day, because using the first day would reward a forecast that ran early and clipped the leading edge. A call counts as a hit only if the real peak fell inside the window we published; landing inside the confidence band is reported separately and is a weaker result. Calls frozen after a location had already peaked are excluded, and locations with no Ontario Parks coverage are left out rather than graded against our own ground reports. Full method. Writing about this before then? The press page has the current forecast, and the frozen log is available on request.