Algonquin is the one place on this site whose timing rests on a real long record rather than an estimate. Fifty-three seasons of it.
Tue, September 1, 2026
Across these 6 places the forecast currently runs from September 23 to October 2. Each window carries a confidence band, because a forecast is not a date.
| Location | Right now | Predicted peak |
|---|---|---|
| Algonquin, Highway 60 corridor | No change Source: Ontario Parks Fall Colour Report, Aug 31 · 0% colour change at Algonquin | Sep 24–Oct 2 ± 7.1 days |
| Oxtongue River and Ragged Falls | No change Source: Ontario Parks Fall Colour Report, Aug 31 · 10% colour change at Oxtongue River-Ragged Falls | Sep 20–Sep 28 ± 6 days |
| Dorset Lookout Tower | No change Source: Ontario Parks Fall Colour Report, Aug 12 · 0% colour change at Lake St. Peter | Sep 29–Oct 7 ± 7.8 days |
| Arrowhead | No change Source: Ontario Parks Fall Colour Report, Aug 31 · 10% colour change at Arrowhead | Sep 22–Sep 30 ± 6.4 days |
| Muskoka, Huntsville and Lake of Bays | No change Source: Ontario Parks Fall Colour Report, Aug 12 · 0% colour change at Oastler Lake | Sep 28–Oct 6 ± 7.7 days |
| Bonnechere and the Barron Canyon | No change Source: Ontario Parks Fall Colour Report, Aug 28 · 10% colour change at Bonnechere | Sep 25–Oct 3 ± 6.8 days |
Updated every time the model runs. How this is made sets out what it uses and what it gets wrong, and how accurate were we scores every frozen prediction against what actually happened.
The Friends of Algonquin Park have recorded the sugar maple peak on the Highway 60 corridor every year since 1973. Across those 53 seasons the mean peak falls on 27 September, and the record runs from 15 September at the earliest to 9 October at the latest.
That is a genuinely unusual dataset for this subject and it is the reason Algonquin's baseline here is measured rather than estimated. Every other location on this site carries a peak date derived as an offset from this record, and each of their pages says so rather than borrowing Algonquin's authority quietly.
The Highway 60 corridor runs through sugar maple on the higher ground of the Algonquin dome, which is both further north and several hundred metres higher than cottage country to the south. Sugar maple is the species that produces the reds and oranges people picture, and it turns early.
The practical consequence is that Algonquin peaks roughly two weeks before Muskoka and three to four weeks before the escarpment. It is the first big display of the Ontario season, not the main one, and people who arrive in the middle of October have usually missed it by a fortnight.
Highway 60 backs up, the popular trail car parks fill by mid morning, and the lookout at the top of the Lookout Trail has a queue. Day use permits can sell out. None of that is a reason not to go, but it is a reason to go early in the day or to go midweek.
The other route around it is to go where the corridor is not. Oxtongue River and Ragged Falls sits just outside the west gate and turns at almost the same time. Bonnechere and the Barron Canyon are on the far eastern side of the park entirely.
Peak week in Algonquin is the hardest weekend of the year to organise yourself: permits sell out, the corridor is full, and the good light is early.
This site is run by Wilderness Union, a Toronto outdoor community for ages 18 to 45. Transport from the city, gear and guides are included.
The mean peak across 53 recorded seasons since 1973 is 27 September, with the record running from 15 September at the earliest to 9 October at the latest.
That is the historical record rather than a forecast for this year. This page carries the current prediction alongside it, with a confidence band.
Very. The last week of September is the busiest week of the park's year. Highway 60 slows, trail car parks fill by the middle of the morning, and day use permits can sell out. Going early in the day, or midweek, makes a large difference.
The Lookout Trail is the classic view over the corridor and is busy for that reason. Booth's Rock and Centennial Ridges are the other two big viewpoints. Ragged Falls, just outside the west gate, is a short walk to a genuinely good one.
We track colour rather than trails, so treat this as orientation and check the park for closures and permits before you go.
Yes, a day use permit is required for the Highway 60 corridor, and on peak fall weekends they can sell out. Buy ahead through Ontario Parks rather than at the gate.
Hiking and paddling weekends run by Wilderness Union, a Toronto outdoor community for ages 18 to 45. Transport, gear and guides included.
See the adventuresOr see every fall trip in date order, with the colour forecast for each destination.
See the fall trips