Rolling hardwood, peaks a few days behind Algonquin.
The season curve
Sep 1–Nov 2 2026
Colour change, percent
Observed Predicted Confidence band Camera index
Solid line: colour change reported by Ontario Parks, weekly, latest Aug 12. Dashed line: the ontariofall.com model, run Sep 1, with the confidence band widening as the forecast reaches further out. Green dotted: our camera colour index, inverted so less green reads as more colour and stretched across its own observed range, so read its shape rather than its height against the percentage axis. Weather by Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0. Free to republish with credit and a link.
The next 3 weekends here
Out of 10, colour and weather combined. The notch on each bar marks 8.0, the point where colour is at peak and the weather is behaving.
Sep 5 – Sep 6
Not worth the drive. Still green on Sep 5, sun.
2.1
Sep 12 – Sep 13
Not worth the drive. Still green on Sep 12, sun.
1.6
Sep 19 – Sep 20
Not worth the drive. Starting on Sep 19, no weather forecast yet.
3.0
What is moving this forecast
Cold nights: 1 so far against a normal pace of 2.3 (+0.6 days).
September temperature anomaly: 0°C (0 days).
Summer rainfall: 308 mm against a normal 305 mm (0 days).
Hard frosts: 0 (0 days).
Observations assimilated: 0 (0 days).
Net shift from the historical baseline: +0.6 days.